We rely on experts in every field. Yet from economists to climate scientists they hold wildly disparate views. Might the very idea of objective knowledge be illusory and expertise be a form of institutional power? If we were more sceptical would it lead to democracy or bring chaos?

Norman Lamont was Chancellor of the Exchequer under Major and Chief Secretary to the Treasury under Margaret Thatcher. He is now President of the Economic Research Council. Here he speaks to the IAI about the role of the expert in a democracy, the future of the Eurozone, and why Jeremy Corbyn has proved so popular with disillusioned voters.

What is the role of the expert in today’s society?

Experts in society and experts in government are different things. Experts in society will give their conclusions and inform a debate. Frequently an expert’s word would be taken as true. But in policy one has to be more precise. The expert will give his or her opinion but it is up to the political master, the government, to test that opinion. There may of course be conflicting expert opinions and it is the function of the minister to evaluate and test those opinions. He may have to weigh the costs of particular advice against issues in other areas so the politician has to make judgements sometimes between different experts.

On what criteria do politicians make those judgements?

Firstly, they have to use common sense. Take the issue of climate change, for example. I’m not advocating one position or another, but obviously getting rid of fossil fuels can impose certain costs and enormous change on society. One has to look at what those costs are, look at what other countries are doing. Does this leave Britain or Europe at a relative disadvantage compared with the United States? These are some of the questions. The views of the scientist claiming that this will happen if you don’t curb fossil fuels now have to be balanced against the considerations of employment and whether we’re acting on our own or with support of other countries.

Despite being a former Chancellor yourself, you spoke candidly in the debate with Matthew Parris and Edward Mortimer about how the idea of an economic expert is something of a contradiction in terms; that the economic forecasts the chancellor is legally obliged to produce in the budget are invariably inaccurate. So how then can we advocate a certain economic policy over another?

One has to distinguish between an expert and a forecaster. Not all experts are forecasters. What I was being sceptical about was economic forecasting. I think it’s the beginning of wisdom to realise that nobody can foresee the future precisely. The unexpected always happens. History is a series of unexpected events, all of which appear inevitable with hindsight. Most forecasts are done on the basis of an extrapolation from the present, but of course the moment you begin to extrapolate is probably the point at which the trend reverses itself.