The belief in meritocracy – that quality, hard work pays off with a commensurate reward – is central to Western liberal democracy; without it, people do not trust free markets, and desire a more socialist government to step in. And now, because a highly educated young population has been met with lower than expected economic rewards, belief in meritocracy is indeed in decline. Researcher at the LSE Gaetano Inglese argues this decline could mean the end of Western societies as we know them.

Introduction

Meritocracy is the widely shared belief that economic fortunes and life outcomes are determined by hard work and effort put in developing skills, competencies and knowledge. This principle has served as a major cornerstone of the reigning liberal individualist ideology of contemporary capitalist societies, promoting the belief that opportunities are equally accessible, and rewards are distributed based on individual merit.

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In recent years, an opposing, anti-meritocratic trend is emerging as the grim reality of economic and occupational outcomes increasingly fails to align with the expectations generated by the liberal meritocratic credo.

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Over the post-war decades especially, the belief in meritocracy has profoundly shaped the aspirations of younger generations across socio-economic classes in the West, who have enjoyed unprecedented access to higher education and, consequently, to bright opportunities for upward social mobility. Thus, while meritocracy has worked as the pragmatic myth of liberal individualism in capitalist societies, it has also boosted the rational expectations of many people, with many individuals and their families choosing to invest in education to achieve higher social status and pursue the noble goal of upgrading their socioeconomic conditions.

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However, in recent years, an opposing, anti-meritocratic trend is emerging as the grim reality of economic and occupational outcomes increasingly fails to align with the expectations generated by the liberal meritocratic credo. As recent articles have claimed, many young graduates are finding themselves in jobs that do not match their qualifications, with their income levels often falling below what they anticipated when making their education choices. This mismatch has raised questions around meritocratic beliefs and the fairness of economic outcomes more generally, particularly during times of economic uncertainty and political turbulence.

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Disappointed early-life expectations may weaken the belief in the fairness of the economic system and foster socialist attitudes in support of greater government intervention in the economy.

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More importantly, when such a felt gap between expected and real economic outcomes occurs at a young, formative age, it may have a lasting impact on one’s behaviour, possibly leading to a generational shift in meritocratic beliefs. This is the focus of my article: the lasting impact of unmet income and occupational expectations on belief in meritocracy. The hypothesis flowing from the observation of current patterns in declining social mobility is that disappointed early-life expectations may weaken the belief in the fairness of the economic system and foster socialist attitudes in support of greater government intervention in the economy. Most interestingly, one could argue that these viewpoints persist throughout one’s life, influencing how individuals perceive economic security, free markets, and state regulation. The important consequences of such a line of thinking are that expectations not only shape individual beliefs but may also play a broader role in reshaping public attitudes of younger generations toward economic policy. A conjecture whose answer lies in the future.

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Meritocracy and its Discontents