Recession could kill more than coronavirus

Caught between two catastrophes

Staying at home is our best weapon against the coronavirus pandemic. But a global economic crash could be a much more significant threat to human life. At some point we will have to endanger lives in the present to save those in the future.

People all over the world are currently confined to their homes.  Lockdown has emerged as our main means of combating the Covid-19 epidemic because there is nothing else.  The development of a vaccine will take at least a year, even under the most optimistic assumptions.  It then needs to be manufactured on an industrial scale and rolled out in mass immunisation programmes. 

It is difficult to see all these things happening in less than 18 months, even allowing for heroic fast-tracking.  But let us imagine that we manage to shorten the whole process to a year.  Can a lockdown strategy work over this prolonged period of time? 

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Elizabeth Schiemer 12 April 2020

A Modest Proposal: Last century our great grandparents sent their young healthy sons to war, to die painful miserable deaths in dirt and mud to ensure freedom for their children. No sacrifice of life was considered too great. This germ warfare is targeting the old, yet the young are being asked to sacrifice their future life on earth to save us. Thanks to the sacrifice of life of those young men and women who went before us those who are old now have lived long lives. . Maybe the time has come for the old to sacrifice themselves for the young that they may too live in freedom we were privileged to enjoy. { idea att to Jonathan Swift. A Modest Proposal}

Wolfgang Kilian 10 April 2020

Brave people, daring to describe the world and everything with a holy single 'J' value. The economic growth in Germany in the last ten years was gained by outsourcing and economization, not necessarily helpful for the health system. Retrospective models also may fail for future developments when decissons are made with mind. However, the may serve for insights for future decissons. The other questions is what is with the other 20% of countries not fitting into this beautifully moddel. Doesn't that show that there are other social communities possible where this solely capital bound live length relation is not true?

Gurdeep Singh Sandhu 8 April 2020

Universal basic income is the solution.