The mistake at the heart of the multiverse

This phenomenon is not evidence for the multiverse

Proponents of the multiverse argue that the fact our universe is fine-tuned for life points to the existence of a multiverse. More universes, they claim, leads to a higher chance that there would be at least one universe with the right conditions for life. But Philip Goff here argues this argument is the result of faulty reasoning - the result of what is known as the inverse gambler's fallacy.

This piece was written in response to this article.

 

According to our current best physics, our universe is fine-tuned for life. Let me be totally clear about what this means, as there are a lot of misunderstandings. The claim is just that, for life to be possible, certain numbers in physics had to fall in a very narrow range. For example, if the force that powers the accelerating expansion of the universe had been a little stronger, everything would have shot apart so quickly that no two particles would have ever met. There would have been no stars, planets, or any kind of structural complexity. Whereas if that force had been significantly weaker, it would not have counteracted gravity, and so the entire universe would have collapsed back on itself a split second after the Big Bang. For there to be structural complexity, and therefore life, that strength of this force had to be – a bit like Goldilocks porridge – not too strong, and not too weak: just right. There are many numbers like this, which is what it means to say our universe is fine-tuned for life.

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Simon Packer 19 December 2024

It seems to me that with both the sniper and the winner selection scenario, there are implicit assumptions about the nature of the soul/consciousness of the observer. They are given an agency sperate from the successful universe. In the case of winner selection, this is obvious. In the case of the sniper, the observer would need at least the time necessary to arise from within the universe.
Either case, as an analogy, has problems for the reductionist-materialist. From that perspective, the observer arises only together with the successful universe, over a time period. He only exists if the universe is viable for a considerable period. Additionally, there are considerable further constraints in addition to cosmological fine tuning to overcome, statistically-speaking.
A multiverse where every universe has the same physics leaves the tuning problem intact or maybe exacerbated.
A multiverse with completely different physics for each universe is inherently unobservable and therefore entirely speculative. As a philosophical idea it is a potential explanation for fine tuning. But it will never be more than a (rather desperate) hypothesis. Questions arise about the veracity of mathematical-physical law, and about the connection between mathematical law and consciously-experienced reality. Roger Penrose has highlighted the matter-mind-maths dilemma in 'The Road to Reality'.
Experience suggests that those who do not wish to know God will adopt desperate hypotheses rather readily.
A transcendent and hugely more powerful Entity entirely able to veil His existence is to me by far the most persuasive hypothesis for our existence, logically-speaking.
The scientific method mandates human processing of data available to humans. Because of this, it is not logical to deem the scientific method as a legitimate limit on absolute truth, knowledge or logic. An absolute definition of rationality need not be the same as a human impression of rationality.

Richard Weisgerber 11 December 2024

Greetings, apparent fellow homo sapient.

This being my Introductory post on this site, my having immediately signed-on for every area, since my mouth most likely type aloha-numeric Unicode in each or all branches.

Well, this is me acting as if some which way my managing to survive this first half of this simulated 69-plus year exposure to mil8tary-industrial-grade greed-driven money-grubbing way of performing acts & ac5tons imbued and infused into every tiny fiber and speck our alleged so-called being.

Core

Joe Blow 1 5 December 2024

Perhaps it's evolutionary. Posit that black hole are a singularity creating another universe. Posit that the same conditions necessary for black holes overlap with the conditions necessary for life. This gives universes a way to reproduce, and evolve into a universe with the conditions necessary for life.

Bennett Smith 1 4 December 2024

I meant to say "implies"

Bennett Smith 1 4 December 2024

Fine tuning is BS. It applies some kind of grand plan or creator. There is no evidence for a plan or creator. The universe is what it is, and we happened to pop up in it. Rerun the scenario and maybe it wouldn't happen next time. Perhaps I'm too simplistic about it.

To Mark, I would say that I would not suspect hanky panky going on if someone beat me at poker 1000 times. I'm really bad at poker!

Mark Mulhern 4 December 2024

This reasoning is all wrong. The sniper theory doesn't do anything to change the probability that somebody won the lottery. To win the lottery is unlikely. (always). For someone to win, almost certainly means that a lot of people played. That corresponds to there being many universes with many possible physical laws.
Think of it this way. If you played poker with someone, and they beat you one thousand games in a row, would you start to think that maybe some hanky panky was going on? Of course you would. There are only 2 possibilities here. That there are an arbitrarily large number of universes (a multiverse), or that the game is rigged and the universe was created for our benefit.