Where does Russia’s geopolitical future lie? Asia and the Global South offer growing markets, and Putin’s war with Ukraine has seen him embrace China as an ally. But Putin is increasingly reliant on what Mark Galeotti calls the “minigarchs”: ambitious officials in the second echelon of power in Russia, who are the ones who actually execute Putin’s policies. And the minigarchs – the first truly post-Soviet political generation in Russia – haven’t yet bought into Putin’s worldview. They worry that Russia risks becoming China’s vassal, and see an opportunity for Russia to attempt to recover friendly relations with Europe, while the US vacates the continent in its pivot to Asia. In this interview with the IAI, Galeotti suggests that Russia’s future depends on the outcome of this struggle within the minigarchy.

Alasdair Craig: In your book, Downfall, about the rise and fall of Yevgeny Prigozhin, you use the term “minigarch” to describe him. What is a Russian minigarch?

Mark Galeotti: This reflects the odd kind of hybrid state that Russia is. In many ways, Russia is like any other modern, institutionalised, bureaucratic state in which power is exerted through institutions, ministries and the like. However, on top of it, there is this almost medieval personalistic court, and in that context we tend to focus on the people there closest to Putin, who tend to be of the same generation, with the same backgrounds – products of the Soviet era – and the same worldview. These are the oligarchs.