Since Russia waged war on Ukraine, many have tried to draw a direct parallel to China and Taiwan, with some senior Taiwanese officials even arguing that in light of recent events, China will delay their invasion of Taiwan. This, argues Nigel Inkster - former director of operations for MI6, is false. China will have drawn one lesson from this conflict. If they conclude that peaceful reunification is no longer an option with Taiwan, a military strike from China will be ‘massive and overwhelming’.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation” – in reality a full-blown invasion- of Ukraine in February 2022, he did so immediately after meeting his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. At that meeting the two sides announced that the China-Russia relationship was a partnership “with no limits”. Since then China, while purporting to remain neutral, has in practice been supportive of Russia’s objectives, seeking to put the blame for the crisis on NATO expansion and reinforcing Russian disinformation about supposed US biological warfare laboratories in Ukraine.    

Xi and Putin have long chafed under the US-led system of global governance which they perceive as perpetuating US and western advantage while holding their own countries back. And both have drunk deep of the Cool-Aid exemplified by the common Chinese trope “the East is rising, the West is in decline.” That said, it is important to keep in mind one fundamental difference between the two. Putin’s Russia is a disruptor, seeing its own security as a function of others’ insecurity. China on the other hand prioritises stability above all else.

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Putin’s Russia is a disruptor, seeing its own security as a function of others’ insecurity. China on the other hand prioritises stability above all else.

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In this context it has become increasingly clear that China has been seriously discountenanced by Russia’s actions and in particular by early displays of Russian military incompetence. And China has been at pains to avoid providing Russia with the kind of practical support that might attract Western secondary sanctions. At the same time, from a strategic perspective, it makes perfect sense for China to remain close to Russia given that under Xi Jinping China’s foreign and security policy is driven by an increasingly zero-sum view of relations with the USA and the West more generally.

SUGGESTED READING The Banality of Putin and Xi By Yaron Brook The Russian invasion of Ukraine has given rise to the perception that the world is now divided between open societies invested in the rules-based international order versus authoritarian states willing to use armed force to pursue their objective in defiance of international law. In that context there has been growing concern that China might seek to take a leaf out of Putin’s book by using armed force to reunify Taiwan. Whilst this concern is justified, drawing a simplified equivalence between the two cases is unhelpful.

China itself has taken strong exception to any suggestion of such an equivalence. This is not just political theatre: such suggestions elicit indignation verging on outrage on the part of senior Chinese civilian and military officials.    For China the political situations are entirely different. Ukraine is a sovereign state with a seat at the UN while Taiwan enjoys no such status. That Russia’s invasion of Ukraine violates China’s long-standing positions on national sovereignty and integrity and the peaceful resolution of disputes makes for considerable discomfort.