In one sense, war most certainly is not a game. People’s lives are at stake. But a branch of mathematical thinking named ‘game theory’ can help us understand relationships between warring states, and how to best navigate them, by treating their interactions as ‘games’. This could help us avoid ever recreating the near human suicide of Mutually Assured Destruction, and could help us find a way out of the Russia-Ukraine war and the tensions between China and the USA, writes Frank Zagare.

Game theory is the science of interactive decision-making. So, it should not be a surprise that it has influenced military planners and strategic thinkers in both academic and governmental circles across the globe. To understand why, first a little background.

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A game is any interactive situation in which the outcome depends on the choice of at least two individuals or two decision-making units. Games, therefore, can run the gamut from lighthearted diversions such as a board game to very serious interactions up to and including war. The current relationship between the United States and China, for example, can be thought of as a game. But so can less contentious relationships such as those that exist among some members of the European community.

The participants in a game are called “players.” The players are assumed to be “rational.” This assumption is widely misunderstood. In game theory a rational player is simply a purposeful player. Players in a game can have just about any goal including those that a game theorist might consider fanciful, misguided, or immoral. The assumption that state actors and their leaders have goals is a common, yet usually unstated, assumption among defense intellectuals.