The supremacy of democracy can be traced from Greece's dominance of the ancient world through to America's place at the head of the table of geopolitics. Do autocracies like China and Russia pose a serious threat, asks Matthew Kroenig.  

Is democracy or autocracy the better form of government? This question has been debated since the time of Aristotle and it has returned in recent years as China and its model of authoritarian, state-led capitalism challenges the US recipe of free-market democracy. Many believe that autocracies are ascendant and democracy in decline, but recent social science research suggests they are mistaken.

The United States has been the world’s leading geopolitical power since 1945. After the end of the Cold War, Francis Fukuyama even declared the “end of history” as US-style, democracy and capitalism emerged as the only legitimate means of organizing domestic economies and politics.

But the return of great power rivalry with Russia and China in recent years has disrupted that happy notion. Russia seeks to disrupt the US-led global system, while China seeks to displace it. China’s economy has grown at rapid rates and economists predict that Beijing could overtake the United States as the world’s leading economy within the decade. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has increased its diplomatic influence in every region of the world through big, strategic plans, such as its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). And it is investing in weapons that could one day evict the US military from Asia and eventually make China a global military power in its own right.

China seems to have cracked the code on how to build an autocratic system effective at amassing international power and influence.

In sum, China seems to have cracked the code on how to build an autocratic system effective at amassing international power and influence. Some even warn that we must become accustomed to life “when China rules the world.”

But recent social science research suggests a different answer. I teach a PhD seminar on advanced international relations theory at Georgetown University and for the past several decades economists and political scientists have been obsessed with the question of whether democracies are different. The strict rule of law system in democracies result in sound economic institutions that give investors confidence. Free societies encourage the kind of radical innovation that fosters long-run growth. Constraints on executive power mean that democracies are more likely to strike and maintain international commitments, making them more reliable international partners. And freedom of information and open debate helps democratic leaders to make more informed decisions, including on issues of war and peace.

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In a new book, I aggregate these discrete findings into a bigger argument about democratic advantages in great power rivalry. Since democracies do better in the important domains of the economy, diplomacy, and military, they should also do better overall. I maintain that there is a democratic advantage in great power competition.

I consider supposed autocratic advantages as well, but these are often overrated. Some claim that dictators, not bothered with elections and changes in government, can better set and maintain a long-run strategic direction. But, in reality, dictators have proven quite fickle. With fewer constraints in the system, they have often bounced from one failed plan to another. Just think of China’s Mao Zedong ricocheting from his Thousand Flowers Campaign, to the Great Leap Forward, and then to the Cultural Revolution.