Oil and gas have been at the heart of geopolitical conflicts. Russia’s war against Ukraine is the most recent example: EU countries are scrambling to decouple themselves from energy dependence on a hostile Russia. Many believe that an eventual transition to renewable sources of energy will not only slow down climate change, but also put an end to energy-related conflicts. But that is mere wishful thinking. A world dominated by renewable energy will still see one set of countries depend on other. Be it in virtue of more sunlight in Saharan countries, or the concentration of minerals needed for clean energy storage in places like China, or the race to develop the most efficient and cheap low carbon technologies, very few countries will be self-sufficient energy-wise. The geopolitics of energy are here to stay, argue Mathieu Blondeel and Michael Bradshaw.

Fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—have often been the root cause of conflict and have triggered global economic crises. They are, of course, also at the heart of the global climate crisis. In the past ten years alone, 86 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions can be attributed to the burning of fossil fuels. Unsurprisingly, the need for a so-called global energy system transformation—the structural shift from a fossil fuel-dominated energy system to one dominated by renewables and low-carbon technologies—has topped political agendas for a while now.