We like to think the future can be predicted, uncertainty eradicated, and that risk can be managed and controlled. But what if this approach to uncertainty doesn't work, never has, and never will? Ian Scoones argues our current technocratic frameworks for managing uncertainty fail to account for the complexities of our world. Instead, we should embrace uncertainty, and learn from people who live with it, to take a more flexible approach to decision-making and resilience.
Uncertainties are everywhere. Climate change, financial volatility, new technologies, pandemics, disasters. Uncertainties frame our lives. But what are the implications of taking uncertainty seriously, embracing it rather than trying to ignore it?
We are currently stuck in a linear, mechanistic, technocratic risk-based paradigm that fails to address the enormous complexity of today’s turbulent world. This is problematic, and sometimes dangerous. We often act as if our world can be predicted and understood in its totality. But what if the world is dominated by uncertainty and complexity, not risk and stability? What if the modernist systems - of formalised planning, risk management, control systems and so on - just don’t work, and never will? As I argue in my new book, we need to rethink our approach.
Distinguishing risk and uncertainty
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