One year ago, Western forces withdrew entirely from Afghanistan, leading to the fall of Kabul into the hands of the Taliban. That was a mistake. Vladimir Putin saw this as a sign of American decline and invaded Ukraine, thinking there would be a limited reaction. That was also an error. NATO, led by the USA, is today stronger than it has been for at least 30 years. This, in turn, is sending a strong message to China and Xi Ji Ping, argues Sir Malcolm Rifkind. 

Afghanistan had been deeply divided for much of its history. It still is. The civil war might have stopped, but large parts of the population are not reconciled to permanent Taliban control of the country. The Taliban draw their support mainly from the 42% of the population who are Pashtun.  The Tajiks, Hazara, Uzbeks and others have their own leaders and culture and are demanding power-sharing; so far, they are not getting it.

Taliban power, which followed the American and Western exodus from the country last year, was intensely controversial and not just in the West. The Russians, Chinese and others, while enjoying American humiliation, were alarmed at an extremist, Islamist group taking power, again, in such a pivotal country. While the Taliban do not have much of an international agenda and are preoccupied with imposing their extreme version of Islam in their own country, they had also, in the past, showed a willingness to give comfort, support and refuge to al Qaeda.  While they had denied that this would happen again, the recent  American strike against al Qaeda leader, Zawahiri, living comfortably in a safe house in Kabul,  demonstrated the hollowness of Taliban assurances.

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The consequences of the withdrawal from Afghanistan are likely to have influenced Putin and his decision to invade Ukraine.

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SUGGESTED READING The real reason for leaving Afghanistan By Hew Strachan While I shared President Biden’s assessment that the Afghan Government, even with US support, could not defeat the Taliban I, and others, believed that it was unnecessary and foolish to order a complete withdrawal last year.  At that time there were only a few hundred American ground forces left in the county; they were not directly involved in combat and there were few US casualties. If they had been withdrawn that would have had minor military consequences. It was the cessation of US and NATO air support to the Afghan armed forces that was decisive. The Taliban had no air power. While they could not be defeated on the ground it would have taken them years to take Kabul and other major cities if US air power had been retained. This has now been demonstrated by the US use of air power to assassinate Zawahiri. The US is making it clear to the Taliban that it will not hesitate to use air power to destroy any al Qaeda base or safe haven in Afghanistan permitted by the Taliban.

What was also unforgivable was that the US had excluded the Afghan Government from the negotiations they were having with the Taliban prior to their withdrawal. This exclusion destroyed the credibility and the authority of the Afghan elected government in the eyes of their own people which turned the US withdrawal into a rout.

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This presumption of American decline has been a serious mistake of Putin’s.

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