The tensions between China and the US have reached new levels. Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan could turn out to be the equivalent of the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand, the trigger of World War I. But a war between the two countries over Taiwan would be unwinnable, leaving both sides deeply wounded. What is needed is the rebuilding of trust between the two superpowers, writes Robert A. Manning.

Are the US and China stumbling into the Thucydides trap, so named for the ancient Greek historian’s account of the Peloponnesian war between the then leading power, Sparta, which feared a rising power, Athens?

Established powers have historically feared being dislodged by rising ones, often leading to war. In the case of the US and China, since relations were normalized in 1979, tensions have risen in direct proportion to the degree the gap in wealth and power has diminished. The aftermath of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s unnecessary visit to Taiwan and the extreme, dangerous Chinese response left an already fraught and toxic relationship between the two nuclear weapons states closer to confrontation than any time since the Korean War in the early 1950s.