War between China and the United States would end our civilisation as we know it. In the face of such risk, it may appear sound for all sides to declare their intentions to descalate the Taiwan Strait. Peter Harris and Jared M. McKinney argue that this is mistaken and dangerous: strategic clarity lacks credibility, is unlikely to work, and could set off a third world war.

China’s military drills in May, which surrounded Taiwan in a manner reminiscent of China’s “exercises” in 2022 after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, once again raised the prospect that sometime in the not-too-distant future China’s “drills” might become the real thing. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be even harder to contain than Russia’s war in Ukraine or the conflict in Gaza. It might even be the spark that sets off World War III.