War between China and the United States would end our civilisation as we know it. In the face of such risk, it may appear sound for all sides to declare their intentions to descalate the Taiwan Strait. Peter Harris and Jared M. McKinney argue that this is mistaken and dangerous: strategic clarity lacks credibility, is unlikely to work, and could set off a third world war.

China’s military drills in May, which surrounded Taiwan in a manner reminiscent of China’s “exercises” in 2022 after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, once again raised the prospect that sometime in the not-too-distant future China’s “drills” might become the real thing. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be even harder to contain than Russia’s war in Ukraine or the conflict in Gaza. It might even be the spark that sets off World War III.

In Washington, the conversation is understandably focused on how the United States can best deter war in the Taiwan Strait. To those who regard Taiwan as the ultimate domino, one suggestion stands head and shoulders above the others: the idea that the United States must provide “strategic clarity” that it intends to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

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This proposal—recently advanced by Matt Pottinger, a former China hand in the Trump administration, for example—draws on the old adage that the best way to secure peace is to prepare for war. There is some logic to this. If China were convinced that invading Taiwan would bring about a ruinous war with the United States, perhaps no such invasion would ever take place. But as we show in a new peer-reviewed article, there are at least five good reasons why a U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan ought not be made.