Since Russia waged war on Ukraine, many have tried to draw a direct parallel to China and Taiwan, with some senior Taiwanese officials even arguing that in light of recent events, China will delay their invasion of Taiwan. This, argues Nigel Inkster - former director of operations for MI6, is false. China will have drawn one lesson from this conflict. If they conclude that peaceful reunification is no longer an option with Taiwan, a military strike from China will be ‘massive and overwhelming’.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his “special military operation” – in reality a full-blown invasion- of Ukraine in February 2022, he did so immediately after meeting his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. At that meeting the two sides announced that the China-Russia relationship was a partnership “with no limits”. Since then China, while purporting to remain neutral, has in practice been supportive of Russia’s objectives, seeking to put the blame for the crisis on NATO expansion and reinforcing Russian disinformation about supposed US biological warfare laboratories in Ukraine.