2023 was the hottest year ever. But we still don't understand the climate and our models don't predict it accurately, and they need to. With crisis around the corner, Tim Palmer argues that the only way we can mitigate let alone solve climate change is with a CERN for climate models. Otherwise we’ll be stuck in the 1970s in an ever more inhospitable world.

I sat down with Professor Tim Palmer to discuss some of the issues coming up at the Global Climate Future panel coming up at HowTheLightGetsIn May 24^th-27^th. Tim is the Royal Society Research Professor in Climate Physics and a Senior Fellow at the Oxford Martin Institute. An expert in chaos, his latest book The Primacy of Doubt shows how we can understand chaos and use it to predict the world around us.

Decrying the certainty with which many argue about climate change, Tim suggests that our models are stuck in the 70s, the resolution – how clearly we can know the specifics of the climate in a particular region – of our current models is poor. Last year’s heatwaves left many climate scientists surprised with NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt writing “It’s humbling and a bit worrying to admit that no year has confounded climate scientists’ predictive capabilities more than 2023 has.” This is just one sign of the many gaps in our knowledge. But Tim argues it doesn’t have to be this way. With the development of a CERN for climate modelling, an international effort to produce better models could better inform our plans for mitigation, adaptation and solutions to the climate emergency.