Most treat Britain as a middle power in decline. But Cambridge University's Brendan Simms and geopolitical adviser Hugh Simms argue Britain acts much more like a superpower than we might expect. Britain is one of the forces shaping international security rather than simply reacting to it. A recent survey rated Britain's security and intelligence services the best in Europe. Britain is the second largest exporter of services in the world. In science and technology Britain has shown great promise in areas such as chip design, quantum, and bioengineering and ranks fourth globally by number of unicorns. By leaning into its leadership these areas, Britain can be great again.

At the end of the Cold War, many believed that great power politics had come to an end. That “holiday from history” was rudely interrupted by Putin’s invasion of Georgia and subsequent annexation of Crimea, as well as China’s growing assertiveness on the world stage. Britain, with its military bogged down in the Middle East, its supply chains tied to China, and its security largely outsourced to the United States, was caught napping.

That Britain has experienced relative decline since the early twentieth century is not in doubt. But the fall from hegemony has, over the decades, been accompanied by a historical tendency to view every setback as evidence of irreversible decline. To be sure, Britain has recently experienced significant problems such as the political paralysis of the Brexit years and its current economic travails. This has led much of the commentariat today to speak of Britain as a “middle power,” like Canada or Turkey. However, Britain continues to shape the international order much more than the current discourse might suggest.

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The paradox is that a more dangerous world exposes British weaknesses while simultaneously increasing the value of the United Kingdom’s remaining very significant capabilities. Britain’s relative economic decline can coexist with an ability to shape the international order if it builds on its distinctive strengths and addresses its fundamental weaknesses. Most importantly, Britain should ultimately want to be a great power, despite the burdens of that role. Otherwise it will be among the ordered, rather than one of the orderers, with all that would imply for the country’s security and prosperity.

What makes a great power

The question of what makes a great power has been disputed for centuries. But discussions about what makes a great power today are biased towards economic heft. To be sure, GDP matters enormously. It enables the great powers to shape the global economic system, fund their military ambitions, and absorb shocks. However, it is often a better measure of potential than of the ability to shape and respond to events. Germany and Japan are a testament to how a large GDP can coexist with dependence on security guarantees and a lack of will to act independently and assertively. At the same time, Russia has a smaller GDP than Italy, but few would argue the latter is a greater power than the former.

A great power is ultimately a state that shapes the international order: it expects an important voice in major international questions, can make or break rules, and possesses a freedom of action far beyond that of smaller states. The most important test is whether a country can materially affect others’ calculations, organize collective action and withstand and resist coercion.

Is Britain a great power?