2023 was the hottest year on record. Climate change is rapidly changing the natural world and will soon also change the world order. Temperature increases may initially benefit some countries, making agriculture possible in previously barren lands. But what will ultimately determine the future balance of power is the degree of dependence on fossil fuels, argues Simon Dalby.

Record breaking weather events in numerous parts of the world in 2023 have made it clear that climate change is accelerating. Floods, droughts, heat waves and hurricanes demonstrated that repeated disruptions to agriculture, trade and production are to be expected in coming years. Sea ice in polar regions is receding, so too are glaciers in most parts of the world. The geographical patterns of the recent past are changing, and with them many aspects of human affairs, including agriculture, trade and finance.

An ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer, something that is coming into view, will offer new faster shipping routes from Asia to Europe. If political difficulties in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal restrict transit there, and climate change induced drought conditions in Panama continue to reduce transit through that canal too, then Arctic shipping routes may be useful in speeding at least summer trade across the world. Not surprisingly Asian trading nations are paying attention; shipping bureaus in Asia would be negligent if they didn’t consider this new faster way to get things from Shanghai to Hamburg. If Asian navies are surveying new routes there is no reason for alarm, at least not if you are a European consumer.